THE BIG BUCKS IN AP BY-POLLS

DESARAJU SURYA
Hyderabad: The by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats held yesterday in Andhra Pradesh are re-writing the records for all the negative reasons. Be it the unhindered distribution of liquor, money, gold -- and what not -- to voters and then the betting on the prospects of different parties and candidates, everything has been happening on an unprecedented scale leaving everyone in shocking dismay.
As voters lined up at polling booths in large numbers to exercise their franchise in the by-elections, punters were busy in the main cities and towns of the state resetting their stakes on the results of the battle.
Anything less than 16 Assembly seats for the YSR Congress -- the favourite in the race -- is not worth the bucks and punters are said to be rejecting all such bets.
The YSRC started off as the favourite ever since the poll schedule was announced last month but it was given only about 12 seats initially. The arrest of YSRC president Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and the "sympathy" his mother and sister generated during the campaign trail have raised the party's stock steeply.
Now, the party is expected to win 17 seats and possibly as a biggest surprise the 18th (Parkal in Telangana) as well, making it a "clean sweep".
Accordingly, punters have changed the stakes and are betting heavily only on Jagan's party.
As per speculation, all the eight seats in Rayalaseema region will fall in YSRC kitty without any doubt. In coastal Andhra, one out of nine seats, at best, may go to others.
Punters, who commission their own surveys in most cases, say there was a 7.5 per cent swing in favour of YSRC after Jagan's arrest on May 27. That could be a bit outlandish but there is certainly a fair amount of swing.
Jagan's mother apart, his sister Sharmila was the real trump card for YSRC.
The huge voter turnout in almost all the constituencies was sort of a "repeat" of the Kadapa by-election last year when Jagan himself won the Lok Sabha seat by a record margin of over 5.45 lakh votes.
It's also a clear indicator of the strong anti-government sentiment among people. That will reflect in the results on June 15.
With the stakes being so high in the by-election both for YSRC as well as Congress, the money put in betting was also said to be "too huge".
A Congress MP from coastal Andhra, known for his interest in betting on electoral results, is said to have put in heavy sums on these by-polls as well.
In a few constituencies in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, the contesting candidates too have put stakes on their own prospects, making the bettng game interesting.
The expenditure (by candidates and political parties) in these by-elections has been astronomical (bare estimates put the figure at Rs 700 crore) and now the betting stakes might well overshoot that.

WHITHER RESIGNATIONS AND BY-ELECTIONS

DESARAJU SURYA

Hyderabad: Repeated by-elections forced on people in Andhra Pradesh for one reason or the other have not only wreaked havoc in many forms in the last few years but also seemed to have pushed the main political parties to a flashpoint so much so that they are now seeking to arrest the “disastrous trend”.

With the state administration getting paralysed due to frequent by-elections and crores of rupees of public money (and, of course, of political parties and individuals) “wasted”, a serious debate has started on the need for initiating some “urgent reformative action” and finding a “practical solution for a burning problem”.

The ruling Congress and the principal opposition Telugu Desam have been strongly advocating the need for amending the Representation of the People Act (RPA) to bar legislators from quitting their posts “at the drop of a hat” and – if they resigned mid-term – make them ineligible from contesting the elections for a certain period of time thereupon.

Other important parties like Lok Satta have also raised a similar demand to stop legislators from using resignation as a “personal political weapon”.

Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly Speaker Nadendla Manohar was, in fact, the first one to suggest that sitting legislators be barred from quitting their posts except in extraordinary circumstances.

“We have adopted the British Parliamentary traditions and practices but have not been following the same in respect of members’ resignation,” Manohar feels.

Now, Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy, Leader of Opposition N Chandrababu Naidu and Lok Satta Party chief N Jayaprakash Narayan have joined chorus, stressing on the need for an urgent amendment to the RPA.

“We will bring changes in the RPA to prevent frequent resignations by sitting MLAs,” the Chief Minister said.

Chandrababu wanted legislators, who quit their posts midway through the five-year term, debarred for ten years from contesting elections afresh.

“We are becoming sick, and also scary, about the by-elections,” Chandrababu observed.

Jayaprakash Narayan, a bureaucrat-turned-MLA, too favoured such a ban saying it would have a “salutary effect”.

“In case a legislator quits his post and wants to contest a by-election immediately, he or his party should be made to bear the entire election expenditure in that constituency. This step too will prevent unnecessary resignations and have a salutary effect,” Narayan said.

In fact, the Election Commission of India forwarded a proposal in this regard to the Government of India long ago but the latter is yet to act on it.

The National Law Commission too came up with a recommendation that a legislator who resigned should not be allowed to contest again till the next general election. The Centre is reportedly sitting on this as well.

In Andhra Pradesh, the trend of resignations was started by the separatist Telangana Rashtra Samiti when its president quit his Lok Sabha seat first in 2006 and again in 2008. In 2008, 16 TRS MLAs resigned from their posts, on the demand for creation of Telangana state, forcing by-elections.

In 2010, ten TRS MLAs quit causing by-polls alleging that the Centre failed to keep its word on the creation of a separate state and repeated the same trick in 2012. This time some turncoats from the TDP also joined the “cause”, leading to yet another round of by-polls. In 2011, one TDP member switched sides to TRS leading to a by-election and in March this year another legislator joined YSR Congress from TDP resulting in a by-election.

In 2011, by-elections were held to Kadapa Lok Sabha and Pulivendula Assembly constituencies following the resignation of Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and Y S Vijaya respectively from their posts as well as Congress. In fact, Vijaya was elected to the Assembly in a by-election in December 2009, caused due to the death of her husband and the then Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy in September 2009.

Two other by-elections were caused due to death of sitting members in 2009 and 2012.

Now, by-elections are being held for one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats, the highest in one go. Of the 18 Assembly seats, 16 fell vacant due to disqualification of sitting members of the ruling Congress (for voting against the government) while two others resigned. The Nellore Lok Sabha by-poll was also caused due to resignation of sitting member upon jumping over to YSRC from Congress.

In all, the state witnessed an unprecedented 65 by-elections since 2005.

On each Assembly segment, the government is said to be incurring an expenditure of Rs 5 crore for conducting an election while election watchdogs say the contesting candidates and political parties are spending staggering amounts running into hundreds of crores of rupees.

Now, at least the major political parties in Andhra Pradesh want the buck to stop here.