THE BIG BUCKS IN AP BY-POLLS

DESARAJU SURYA
Hyderabad: The by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats held yesterday in Andhra Pradesh are re-writing the records for all the negative reasons. Be it the unhindered distribution of liquor, money, gold -- and what not -- to voters and then the betting on the prospects of different parties and candidates, everything has been happening on an unprecedented scale leaving everyone in shocking dismay.
As voters lined up at polling booths in large numbers to exercise their franchise in the by-elections, punters were busy in the main cities and towns of the state resetting their stakes on the results of the battle.
Anything less than 16 Assembly seats for the YSR Congress -- the favourite in the race -- is not worth the bucks and punters are said to be rejecting all such bets.
The YSRC started off as the favourite ever since the poll schedule was announced last month but it was given only about 12 seats initially. The arrest of YSRC president Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and the "sympathy" his mother and sister generated during the campaign trail have raised the party's stock steeply.
Now, the party is expected to win 17 seats and possibly as a biggest surprise the 18th (Parkal in Telangana) as well, making it a "clean sweep".
Accordingly, punters have changed the stakes and are betting heavily only on Jagan's party.
As per speculation, all the eight seats in Rayalaseema region will fall in YSRC kitty without any doubt. In coastal Andhra, one out of nine seats, at best, may go to others.
Punters, who commission their own surveys in most cases, say there was a 7.5 per cent swing in favour of YSRC after Jagan's arrest on May 27. That could be a bit outlandish but there is certainly a fair amount of swing.
Jagan's mother apart, his sister Sharmila was the real trump card for YSRC.
The huge voter turnout in almost all the constituencies was sort of a "repeat" of the Kadapa by-election last year when Jagan himself won the Lok Sabha seat by a record margin of over 5.45 lakh votes.
It's also a clear indicator of the strong anti-government sentiment among people. That will reflect in the results on June 15.
With the stakes being so high in the by-election both for YSRC as well as Congress, the money put in betting was also said to be "too huge".
A Congress MP from coastal Andhra, known for his interest in betting on electoral results, is said to have put in heavy sums on these by-polls as well.
In a few constituencies in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, the contesting candidates too have put stakes on their own prospects, making the bettng game interesting.
The expenditure (by candidates and political parties) in these by-elections has been astronomical (bare estimates put the figure at Rs 700 crore) and now the betting stakes might well overshoot that.

WHITHER RESIGNATIONS AND BY-ELECTIONS

DESARAJU SURYA

Hyderabad: Repeated by-elections forced on people in Andhra Pradesh for one reason or the other have not only wreaked havoc in many forms in the last few years but also seemed to have pushed the main political parties to a flashpoint so much so that they are now seeking to arrest the “disastrous trend”.

With the state administration getting paralysed due to frequent by-elections and crores of rupees of public money (and, of course, of political parties and individuals) “wasted”, a serious debate has started on the need for initiating some “urgent reformative action” and finding a “practical solution for a burning problem”.

The ruling Congress and the principal opposition Telugu Desam have been strongly advocating the need for amending the Representation of the People Act (RPA) to bar legislators from quitting their posts “at the drop of a hat” and – if they resigned mid-term – make them ineligible from contesting the elections for a certain period of time thereupon.

Other important parties like Lok Satta have also raised a similar demand to stop legislators from using resignation as a “personal political weapon”.

Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly Speaker Nadendla Manohar was, in fact, the first one to suggest that sitting legislators be barred from quitting their posts except in extraordinary circumstances.

“We have adopted the British Parliamentary traditions and practices but have not been following the same in respect of members’ resignation,” Manohar feels.

Now, Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy, Leader of Opposition N Chandrababu Naidu and Lok Satta Party chief N Jayaprakash Narayan have joined chorus, stressing on the need for an urgent amendment to the RPA.

“We will bring changes in the RPA to prevent frequent resignations by sitting MLAs,” the Chief Minister said.

Chandrababu wanted legislators, who quit their posts midway through the five-year term, debarred for ten years from contesting elections afresh.

“We are becoming sick, and also scary, about the by-elections,” Chandrababu observed.

Jayaprakash Narayan, a bureaucrat-turned-MLA, too favoured such a ban saying it would have a “salutary effect”.

“In case a legislator quits his post and wants to contest a by-election immediately, he or his party should be made to bear the entire election expenditure in that constituency. This step too will prevent unnecessary resignations and have a salutary effect,” Narayan said.

In fact, the Election Commission of India forwarded a proposal in this regard to the Government of India long ago but the latter is yet to act on it.

The National Law Commission too came up with a recommendation that a legislator who resigned should not be allowed to contest again till the next general election. The Centre is reportedly sitting on this as well.

In Andhra Pradesh, the trend of resignations was started by the separatist Telangana Rashtra Samiti when its president quit his Lok Sabha seat first in 2006 and again in 2008. In 2008, 16 TRS MLAs resigned from their posts, on the demand for creation of Telangana state, forcing by-elections.

In 2010, ten TRS MLAs quit causing by-polls alleging that the Centre failed to keep its word on the creation of a separate state and repeated the same trick in 2012. This time some turncoats from the TDP also joined the “cause”, leading to yet another round of by-polls. In 2011, one TDP member switched sides to TRS leading to a by-election and in March this year another legislator joined YSR Congress from TDP resulting in a by-election.

In 2011, by-elections were held to Kadapa Lok Sabha and Pulivendula Assembly constituencies following the resignation of Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and Y S Vijaya respectively from their posts as well as Congress. In fact, Vijaya was elected to the Assembly in a by-election in December 2009, caused due to the death of her husband and the then Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy in September 2009.

Two other by-elections were caused due to death of sitting members in 2009 and 2012.

Now, by-elections are being held for one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats, the highest in one go. Of the 18 Assembly seats, 16 fell vacant due to disqualification of sitting members of the ruling Congress (for voting against the government) while two others resigned. The Nellore Lok Sabha by-poll was also caused due to resignation of sitting member upon jumping over to YSRC from Congress.

In all, the state witnessed an unprecedented 65 by-elections since 2005.

On each Assembly segment, the government is said to be incurring an expenditure of Rs 5 crore for conducting an election while election watchdogs say the contesting candidates and political parties are spending staggering amounts running into hundreds of crores of rupees.

Now, at least the major political parties in Andhra Pradesh want the buck to stop here.

JAGAN'S CAREER GRAPH

DESARAJU SURYA

Hyderabad: From a small-time businessman to a formidable political leader, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy -- better known as Jagan -- had a rather smooth ride in over a decade before he hit a biggest bump in his life now.

The only son of late Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, Jagan began his business career in 1999-2000 by establishing a tiny power company Sandur in neighbouring Karnataka.

His business graph rose meteorically once his father became the state Chief Minister in 2004 and Jagan started venturing into many other businesses including cement plants, infrastructure and media.

Jagan's political ambitions were first revealed in late 2004 when he aspired to become an MP from his home turf Kadapa but the Congress high command nipped that in the bud. He had to wait till 2009 to fulfil  his dream and make a formal political debut by winning the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat.

His father's tragic death in a helicopter crash in September 2009, litreally changed everything for Jagan. 

He wanted to succeed his late father to the Chief Minister's throne but the Congress high command was unwilling to grant him the wish despite a majority of legislators rallying behind him at that point. 

Disillusioned, Jagan gradually began defying the Congress bosses and, by early 2010 was meticulously charting his own course.

He took the 'Odarpu Yatra' path to build his political career independently, much to the discomfiture of the ruling party.

Jagan's emergence as a "leader" began with the Odarpu Yatra as he went round villages and districts to console families that lost their kin in the aftermath of YSR's sudden death. In no time, his popularity graph shot upwards while that of the ruling Congress' dipped gradually.

As the Congress objected to his yatra and rejected "permission", Jagan decided to snap his association with the party.

The flashpoint came in November 2010 when the Congress made N Kiran Kumar Reddy the Chief Minister of AP in place of ageing K Rosaiah in an ostensible bid to effectively counter Jagan.

On November 29, 2010, Jagan called it quits and walked out of the Congress, which his father loyally served for three decades, and also resigned from his Lok Sabha membership.

In March 2011, Jagan announced the setting up of his own Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress -- YSR Congress -- throwing a challenge primarily at Congress and also Telugu Desam Party.

He won the by-election to Kadapa Lok Sabha seat with a record margin of over five lakh votes in May 2011 while his mother Y S Vijaya won the Pulivendula Assembly seat in an emphatic fashion.

Ever since, the YSR Congress became the thorn in the flesh of the Congress particularly in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions of the state.

The Congress survived a biggest scare to its government in December last when 16 of its MLAs -- owing allegiance to Jagan -- voted in support of a no-confidence motion moved by the TDP but the (erstwhile) Praja Rajyam and Majlis parties saved the day.

In the by-elections in March, the Congress faced a complete rout when it lost all the seven seats, six of them in Telangana and one in coastal Andhra. By winning the lone seat in coastal Andhra, the YSR Congress sent the first warning signal to the Congress as well as the TDP on the things in store.

Now, as the state heads for by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats on June 12, the YSR Congress is the clear favourite to win the elections, which could spell doom for the Congress government.

Jagan has now set his eyes clearly on the Chief Minister's chair and appears confident of making it to the hot seat in the next general elections to the state Assembly whenever they are held. He may not have to wait till 2014 for that.

Future Ominous for Congress and TDP

DESARAJU SURYA

Hyderabad: The writing on the wall has become clearer for the ruling Congress and the principal opposition Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh: they are facing a serious survival threat.

Results of the by-elections to seven Assembly constituencies clearly established that fortunes of these two major parties are on the wane.

Both parties contested all the seven seats in the by-elections but could not win even one.

Also, the resounding success of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti at the cost of the Congress and the TDP, has reaffirmed that the demand for a separate Telangana state cannot be wished away.

Last but not the least, victory of YSR Congress candidate N Prasanna Kumar Reddy in Kovur in coastal Andhra region is an indicator of things to come when the state will see another round of by-polls to 18 Assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha seat in the next few months.

The YSRC is emerging a force to reckon with in the state politics, an ominous sign for both the Congress and the TDP.

That the "Telangana sentiment" won in the six segments in the region need not be re-emphasised. The TRS (four), the BJP (one) and even the lone Independent candidate won on the Telangana plank.

It was a morale-boosting victory for the BJP (in the single seat it contested) in a see-saw battle in Mahbubnagar where it beat the TRS by a margin of 1897 votes, leaving the Congress and the TDP in third and fourth positions. The BJP could win the voters' confidence by convincing them that it alone could deliver a separate state. The BJP got the better of TRS despite the fact that the latter too was "championing" of the cause of separate state. "We could convince people that Telangana state is possible only through BJP and hence they voted for us," party state president G Kishan Reddy noted.

On a personal front, it's a serious setback for TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao as he could not ensure victory of his party candidate in Mahbubnagar, that falls under the Lok Sabha constituency he represents.

The government employees, who have been playing a key part in the statehood movement, reposed their faith in the BJP rather than the TRS, thereby turning the tide against KCR.

The Mahbubnagar result could well mark the resurgence of BJP at least in the Telangana region in the state, a factor that could be detrimental to the TRS in future.

The Congress and the TDP that refused to acknowledge the Telangana factor were made to bite the dust. The saving grace for the ruling party was the second position it secured in four out of six segments in Telangana while the TDP was relegated to the third place in four seats. Only in Station Ghanpur did the TDP manage to finish as the runner-up but in Mahbubnagar it ended up a distant fourth.

So severe was the drubbing for TDP that its candidates lost deposits in Kamareddy and Nagarkurnool segments. Ironically, these two seats were won by the TDP in 2009 but the MLAs quit the party last year protesting its ambivalent stand on the statehood issue.

The TDP also lost the Adilabad seat which it previously held.

For the Congress, it was a loss of two seats -- Station Ghanpur and Kollapur -- as its MLAs defected to the TRS late last year, protesting the Centre's dilly-dallying on Telangana.

In Kovur in coastal Andhra, the YSR Congress won as expected though the margin of victory (23,496 votes) was much less than anticipated. Defeat in Kovur meant reduction of one more seat in the TDP's kitty as Prasanna Kumar previously represented the party.

In all the TDP lost six MLAs since 2009, bringing its tally down from 92 to 86 in the state Assembly. The principal opposition did not win a single seat in the by-elections to 18 seats in all in Telangana in 2010 and now.

With the victory of four candidates in the by-elections, the TRS' head count will rise to 16 besides an associate member while the BJP's strength increases to three.

The twist in the T drama

DESARAJU SURYA

Hyderabad: There was a rather unexpected change in the script of the resignation drama by Telangana legislators today.

The drama was enacted yesterday as per the script, written and directed by separatist leader K Chandrasekhar Rao, but the play began drifting since midnight when he himself was forced to jump into the act.

Though not in the original script, the second part too had to be played out today with new players coming in.

After the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party MLAs tendered resignations from their posts yesterday, Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrasekhar Rao himself decided to jump into the battlefield and promptly faxed his resignation to Lok Sabha Speaker in the middle of the night.

By day break, his fellow MP Vijayasanthi too followed suit while state Minister P Shankar Rao, who was on a trip to the US, also faxed his resignation to the Assembly Deputy Speaker.

The entire act was supposed to cause tremors in New Delhi so that it breaks the ground for Telangana. But, the impact turned out to be low in intensity.

With clear indications emanating from New Delhi that the Government of India was in no mood to concede the demand for a separate state anytime now, jittery TRS legislators too started making their moves towards resignation.

Around the same time, the Communist Party of India MLAs too mulled over the resignations while the Bharatiya Janata Party MLAs got the go ahead from their national leadership to quit.

In quick succession, the TRS and the CPI MLAs took their turns in submitting their resignations to the Legislature Secretary in the absence of House Speaker and Deputy Speaker.

The head count rose to 98 with all these legislators, including 12 ministers, putting in their papers demanding nothing but a separate Telangana state.

The two BJP MLAs completed the formality late in the evening and took the count to an exact 100, out of the total 119 from the region.

While 10 of the 19 left out belonged to the Congress, seven were from the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and one each from the CPM and the Lok Satta Party. The MIM, CPM and Lok Satta, incidentally, are known supporters of a unified Andhra Pradesh.

As the drama continues, one question that crosses the mind is: "What would be the climax?"

Now, whether the drama ends in a climax -- as the script-writer wished -- or in an anti-climax is the "suspense" element in this sordid tale.