DESARAJU SURYA
Elections-2009 will be by far the hottest in the history of Andhra Pradesh.
The emergence of Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) on the scene has totally altered the political dynamics in the state even as the ruling Congress party finds itself isolated. Old friends -- Telugu Desam Party, Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India (Marxist) -- have come together once again to fight the Congress now. In 2004, the Left parties had aligned with the Congress while Telangana Rashtra Samiti was also part of the grand alliance that ousted N Chandrababu Naidu from power.TDP had only the Bharatiya Janata Party for company in 2004 but the combination could not outwit the Congress-Left-TRS combine. The 2004 poll outcome makes for an interesting study. The Congress, which polled 38.56 per cent of the total valid votes, bagged 185 seats in the 294-member state Assembly while the TDP with a 37.59 per cent vote share could manage only 47 seats. The CPI got 1.53 per cent votes (six seats), CPM 1.84 per cent (nine seats) and the TRS 6.68 per cent (26 seats) while the BJP secured 2.63 per cent and just two seats. Elections-2009 will, however, be entirely different. Despite their combination and the prospects of TRS too joining them, the TDP-Left combine cannot sit confident of a victory. Here comes the PRP into play which could mar its prospects as well as those of the ruling Congress. How much will the vote split be is hard to predict but at least in the coastal Andhra region and to some extent in Rayalaseema, Chiranjeevi's party could cast its spell. The PRP's impact is expected to be the maximum in East Godavari and West Godavari districts, which hitherto used to be the TDP's citadels. In north coastal Andhra too -- comprising Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam districts -- Chiranjeevi's party is likely to eat into the traditional TDP votes much to the comfort of the Congress. In the final analysis, this could prove to be the most decisive factor in determining who comes to power. Of course, the outcome in Telangana will also be crucial as the region has as many as 117 seats. The Congress, however, is putting up a brave front saying no combination or force could prevent it from retaining power. "It will be a positive vote for the government, which is quite unprecedented. The slew of welfare measures, apart from the major development works including the construction of irrigation projects, will stand us in good stead," Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy boasts. There is also widespread talk in the political circles here that another "Mega" alliance could be in the making: Chiranjeevi's PRP, bureaucrat-turned-politician N Jayprakash Narayan's Lok Satta Party and former TDP leader T Devender Goud's Nava Telangana Party. It is also being speculated that the BJP too will be part of this alliance but so far Chiranjeevi has been categorically ruling out any alliance with the saffron party. Lok Satta Party and Nava Telangana Party as such have little influence and will solely try to cash in on Chiranjeevi's charisma. Nevertheless, these combinations will certainly dent the prospects of the Congress and may well dash its hopes of retaining power in Andhra Pradesh.
Elections-2009 will be by far the hottest in the history of Andhra Pradesh.
The emergence of Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) on the scene has totally altered the political dynamics in the state even as the ruling Congress party finds itself isolated. Old friends -- Telugu Desam Party, Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India (Marxist) -- have come together once again to fight the Congress now. In 2004, the Left parties had aligned with the Congress while Telangana Rashtra Samiti was also part of the grand alliance that ousted N Chandrababu Naidu from power.TDP had only the Bharatiya Janata Party for company in 2004 but the combination could not outwit the Congress-Left-TRS combine. The 2004 poll outcome makes for an interesting study. The Congress, which polled 38.56 per cent of the total valid votes, bagged 185 seats in the 294-member state Assembly while the TDP with a 37.59 per cent vote share could manage only 47 seats. The CPI got 1.53 per cent votes (six seats), CPM 1.84 per cent (nine seats) and the TRS 6.68 per cent (26 seats) while the BJP secured 2.63 per cent and just two seats. Elections-2009 will, however, be entirely different. Despite their combination and the prospects of TRS too joining them, the TDP-Left combine cannot sit confident of a victory. Here comes the PRP into play which could mar its prospects as well as those of the ruling Congress. How much will the vote split be is hard to predict but at least in the coastal Andhra region and to some extent in Rayalaseema, Chiranjeevi's party could cast its spell. The PRP's impact is expected to be the maximum in East Godavari and West Godavari districts, which hitherto used to be the TDP's citadels. In north coastal Andhra too -- comprising Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam districts -- Chiranjeevi's party is likely to eat into the traditional TDP votes much to the comfort of the Congress. In the final analysis, this could prove to be the most decisive factor in determining who comes to power. Of course, the outcome in Telangana will also be crucial as the region has as many as 117 seats. The Congress, however, is putting up a brave front saying no combination or force could prevent it from retaining power. "It will be a positive vote for the government, which is quite unprecedented. The slew of welfare measures, apart from the major development works including the construction of irrigation projects, will stand us in good stead," Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy boasts. There is also widespread talk in the political circles here that another "Mega" alliance could be in the making: Chiranjeevi's PRP, bureaucrat-turned-politician N Jayprakash Narayan's Lok Satta Party and former TDP leader T Devender Goud's Nava Telangana Party. It is also being speculated that the BJP too will be part of this alliance but so far Chiranjeevi has been categorically ruling out any alliance with the saffron party. Lok Satta Party and Nava Telangana Party as such have little influence and will solely try to cash in on Chiranjeevi's charisma. Nevertheless, these combinations will certainly dent the prospects of the Congress and may well dash its hopes of retaining power in Andhra Pradesh.
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